diff --git a/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/pages/VehicleDetail.tsx b/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/pages/VehicleDetail.tsx
index 93a066b6..047d2172 100644
--- a/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/pages/VehicleDetail.tsx
+++ b/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/pages/VehicleDetail.tsx
@@ -69,6 +69,13 @@ type VehicleServiceAction = {
   onClick: () => void;
 };
 
+type VehicleServiceConclusion = {
+  status: string;
+  color: 'green' | 'orange' | 'red';
+  risk: string;
+  nextStep: string;
+};
+
 async function copyVehicleServiceURL() {
   try {
     await navigator.clipboard.writeText(`${window.location.origin}${window.location.pathname}${window.location.hash}`);
@@ -230,6 +237,62 @@ export function VehicleDetail({
     onQueryChange?.(nextQuery.keyword, nextQuery.protocol);
     load(nextQuery);
   };
+  const serviceConclusion = useMemo<VehicleServiceConclusion>(() => {
+    if (!hasResolvedVIN) {
+      return {
+        status: '不可服务',
+        color: 'red',
+        risk: '身份未归并到 VIN',
+        nextStep: '先维护车辆身份绑定，再使用实时、历史和里程服务。'
+      };
+    }
+    if (sourceCount <= 0) {
+      return {
+        status: '不可服务',
+        color: 'red',
+        risk: '没有任何来源证据',
+        nextStep: '优先确认平台转发、端口、订阅和绑定配置。'
+      };
+    }
+    if (onlineSourceCount <= 0) {
+      return {
+        status: '不可服务',
+        color: 'red',
+        risk: '全部来源离线',
+        nextStep: '先恢复至少一个实时来源，再判断车辆状态。'
+      };
+    }
+    if (qualityCount > 0) {
+      return {
+        status: '降级可服务',
+        color: 'orange',
+        risk: `${qualityCount} 项质量问题影响可信度`,
+        nextStep: '先处理质量问题，再将该车用于 BI、告警或对外查询。'
+      };
+    }
+    if (missingProtocols.length > 0) {
+      return {
+        status: '降级可服务',
+        color: 'orange',
+        risk: `缺少 ${missingProtocols.join('、')} 来源`,
+        nextStep: '车辆仍可查询，但需要补齐缺失来源后再做跨来源校验。'
+      };
+    }
+    if (isFiniteNumber(consistencyMileageDelta) && consistencyMileageDelta > 1) {
+      return {
+        status: '降级可服务',
+        color: 'orange',
+        risk: `跨来源里程差异 ${formatCompactNumber(consistencyMileageDelta, ' km')}`,
+        nextStep: '核对各来源总里程口径，确认统计使用的主来源。'
+      };
+    }
+    return {
+      status: '可服务',
+      color: 'green',
+      risk: '身份、来源和核心实时证据可用',
+      nextStep: '可进入实时、历史、RAW 和里程查询继续分析。'
+    };
+  }, [consistencyMileageDelta, hasResolvedVIN, missingProtocols, onlineSourceCount, qualityCount, sourceCount]);
   const qualityFiltersForCurrentVehicle = () => ({
     keyword: resolvedVIN,
     ...(activeProtocol ? { protocol: activeProtocol } : {})
@@ -379,6 +442,21 @@ export function VehicleDetail({
         </Card>
       ) : null}
 
+      <Card bordered title="车辆服务结论" style={{ marginTop: 16 }}>
+        <div className="vp-conclusion-grid">
+          {[
+            { label: '服务判断', value: <Tag color={serviceConclusion.color}>{serviceConclusion.status}</Tag> },
+            { label: '主要风险', value: serviceConclusion.risk },
+            { label: '下一步', value: serviceConclusion.nextStep }
+          ].map((item) => (
+            <div key={item.label} className="vp-conclusion-item">
+              <div className="vp-evidence-label">{item.label}</div>
+              <div className="vp-evidence-value">{item.value}</div>
+            </div>
+          ))}
+        </div>
+      </Card>
+
       {overview || consistency ? (
         <Card bordered title="车辆服务证据链" style={{ marginTop: 16 }}>
           <div className="vp-evidence-grid">
diff --git a/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/styles/global.css b/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/styles/global.css
index 62b10d19..6ef71409 100644
--- a/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/styles/global.css
+++ b/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/styles/global.css
@@ -295,6 +295,20 @@ body {
   margin-bottom: 12px;
 }
 
+.vp-conclusion-grid {
+  display: grid;
+  grid-template-columns: 160px minmax(180px, 1fr) minmax(260px, 1.4fr);
+  gap: 12px;
+}
+
+.vp-conclusion-item {
+  min-height: 78px;
+  padding: 12px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--vp-border);
+  border-radius: var(--vp-radius);
+  background: #fbfcff;
+}
+
 .vp-evidence-item {
   min-height: 70px;
   padding: 12px;
@@ -377,3 +391,11 @@ body {
 .semi-navigation-item-text {
   font-size: 14px;
 }
+
+@media (max-width: 900px) {
+  .vp-evidence-grid,
+  .vp-action-grid,
+  .vp-conclusion-grid {
+    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+  }
+}
diff --git a/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/test/App.test.tsx b/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/test/App.test.tsx
index 82026fee..f1de18fb 100644
--- a/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/test/App.test.tsx
+++ b/vehicle-data-platform/apps/web/src/test/App.test.tsx
@@ -5534,6 +5534,10 @@ test('shows actionable vehicle service recommendations on detail', async () => {
 
   render(<App />);
 
+  expect(await screen.findByText('车辆服务结论')).toBeInTheDocument();
+  expect(screen.getByText('降级可服务')).toBeInTheDocument();
+  expect(screen.getByText('3 项质量问题影响可信度')).toBeInTheDocument();
+  expect(screen.getByText('先处理质量问题，再将该车用于 BI、告警或对外查询。')).toBeInTheDocument();
   expect(await screen.findByText('服务处置建议')).toBeInTheDocument();
   expect(screen.getByRole('button', { name: '补齐 YUTONG_MQTT 来源' })).toBeInTheDocument();
   expect(screen.getByRole('button', { name: '处理质量问题 3 项' })).toBeInTheDocument();